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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have done the same thing for two seasons in a row: have a good but not great regular season before turning it on for the playoffs. Last year, they finished second in the NL East and earned a Wild Card spot, before making it to the NLCS. There, they lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks, failing to get to the World Series for the second year in a row.
This season, the Phillies will look to avoid being a Wild Card team once again. But that will be a tall task when the Atlanta Braves are in their division and poised to win around 100 games this season. Here, we break down the season to come for the Phillies and make our pick for their season win total.
2024 Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
| Sportsbook | Over/Under Wins |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | 90.5 |
| BetMGM | 90.5 |
Philadelphia Phillies Team Futures – Sports Betting Odds
Standings Data
| 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Actual Record | 90-72 |
| Run Differential | +81 |
| Pythagorean W/L | 89-73 |
| BaseRuns Record | 94-68 |
| BaseRuns Run Differential | +129 |
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Rhys Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel
It was a pretty quiet offseason for the Phillies, who followed through on paying Aaron Nola rather than making additions from elsewhere. This season, not having Craig Kimbrel around could hurt, as a closer like Kimbrel can really come in handy during the postseason. But overall, the Phillies should be fine based on the lack of meaningful moves that took place for them after their trip to the NLCS.
Offensive Outlook
Philadelphia finished in the top-10 in home runs last season and there is no reason to believe they will not put up similar power numbers in 2024. The Phillies were without Bryce Harper for 36 games last season and still put up impressive offensive numbers. If they have Harper back for more of this coming season, Philadelphia could be even more dangerous before this postseason this time around.
Pitching Outlook
This coming season, the key to the pitching for the Phillies will be the performance of Aaron Nola. Nola got his money this offseason, but he had an ERA of 4.46 in 2023. He’s got to be better to justify that extension, especially when the Phillies could have used that money on a pitcher in Blake Snell who is still available up to the opening week of the season.
Positives & Negatives
Philadelphia is battle-tested and has some dangerous hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Harper to get them through any tough situations, as this team is replete with positives. But their pitching depth leaves a little something to be desired and there are questions about just how trustworthy Nola and Zack Wheeler are at the top of this rotation.
Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction: Over 90.5
Philadelphia should finish second in the NL East once again this season behind the juggernaut that is the Atlanta Braves. We will take the over on their season win total this season, as the offense of the Phillies will be much better than that of the Mets and Marlins in the race for the Wild Card spots out of this division. Philly should win close to 95 games this year and they will be dangerous in the postseason yet again in 2024.
