San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/13/2025

On June 13, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Diego Padres at Chase Field in a pivotal National League West matchup. Currently, the Diamondbacks sit at a .500 record of 34-34, showcasing an average season. In contrast, the Padres are faring well with a 38-29 record, positioning themselves as a solid contender in the division. Notably, the Padres have recently undergone a tough loss, which could have lingering effects as they travel to Arizona.

The Diamondbacks will start Ryne Nelson, who has struggled somewhat this season. He holds a 2-2 record and an ERA of 4.60, ranking him as the 122nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his underwhelming stats, the advanced projections indicate that he might be due for better luck, suggesting he could outperform his expected metrics. Nelson is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, though he must improve on his projected strikeouts, averaging just 3.6.

On the other side, Stephen Kolek, projected to start for the Padres, presents an intriguing but risky option. With a stronger ERA of 3.00, his xFIP of 4.28 shows he might not sustain this level of success. Additionally, his low strikeout rates play into the Diamondbacks' favor, as they are among the least strikeout-prone offenses in the league.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 3rd in MLB in home runs, which is a significant advantage against Kolek, who is more of a groundball pitcher. The Padres' offense, ranked 19th, may struggle against a dominant Diamondbacks lineup that has performed well recently, helping them to win three games in a row.

With the game total set at 9.5 runs, the Diamondbacks, sporting a -130 moneyline, are favored but must capitalize on their powerful offense to secure the win. The projections favor the Diamondbacks to score nearly 5 runs, making them a compelling pick for this matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Stephen Kolek will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In comparison to his 89.2-mph average last year, Corbin Carroll's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.5 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.10 Units / 81% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.94, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.12

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.