San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/14/2025

On June 14, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in a pivotal National League West matchup. Both teams boast identical records of 41-29 this season, positioning them as two of the strongest competitors in the division.

Projected starters for the game include Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and Landen Roupp for the Giants. Kershaw, ranked as the 88th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has had a solid season with a 1-0 record and a 4.35 ERA over five starts. However, his peripherals suggest he may be vulnerable, particularly against a patient Giants lineup that ranks 6th in MLB for walks.

On the other hand, Roupp is having an impressive season, ranked 77th among starting pitchers with a 3.29 ERA and a 4-4 record in 13 starts. However, his projections indicate that he may face challenges today, with a high expected earned runs total and below-average strikeout projections.

The Dodgers offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 2nd in MLB, and is especially potent with their 106 home runs this year, the 2nd most in the league. Conversely, the Giants' offense struggles, ranking 22nd overall and 25th in batting average, which could be a significant disadvantage in this matchup.

With the Dodgers favored at -175 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.07 runs, they are set up for a strong showing against the Giants. The game total currently sits at 9.0 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair as these two rivals clash.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Landen Roupp must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 61.4% of the time, ranking in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87.4-mph mark last year has fallen off to 83.2-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jerar Encarnacion, Tyler Fitzgerald, Willy Adames).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all SPs, Clayton Kershaw's fastball velocity of 88.7 mph ranks in the 4th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Max Muncy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Landen Roupp.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.72, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.92

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

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