San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 6/13/2025

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the San Francisco Giants on June 13, 2025, in the first game of their series, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested race in the National League West. The Dodgers currently hold a record of 41-28, while the Giants sit closely behind at 40-29. With both teams enjoying strong seasons, this matchup carries significant weight in the standings.

In their last game, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess, continuing a trend that has seen them rank as the 2nd best offense in MLB, including leading the league in team batting average. Their starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is expected to take the mound, bringing an impressive 2.20 ERA to the game. Although his xFIP of 2.79 suggests he may have been a bit lucky this season, his elite ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB reflects his capabilities. Yamamoto projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings and allow around 2.2 earned runs, which should keep the Dodgers competitive.

On the other side, Logan Webb is set to start for the Giants, bringing his own strong credentials with a 2.58 ERA and a 5th place ranking among MLB starters. Webb has been particularly effective at limiting walks, an asset against the Dodgers' patient lineup. However, he faces a challenge against a powerful Dodgers offense that has already hit 105 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league.

The projections suggest a favorable outcome for the Dodgers, who are currently favored with a moneyline of -165. With an average implied team total of 4.18 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive strengths. Meanwhile, the Giants, with a low implied total of 3.32 runs, will need to find ways to overcome their recent struggles, especially as they rank 24th in MLB offensively.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's 2085-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 14th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the past two weeks, Wilmer Flores's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Francisco Giants projected lineup grades out as the 4th-worst of all teams on the slate in of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue in the majors — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Freddie Freeman is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 41% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.84, Los Angeles Dodgers 4.87

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

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