As fight night draws near, Malcolm Wellmaker and Kris Moutinho are set to do battle in the bantamweight division. This showdown features an undefeated fighter in Wellmaker looking to stay that way against a more experienced opponent. Here’s a deeper look into what bettors should consider before placing their wagers, along with our Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho prediction.
Our Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho Pick
- Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker via KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Malcolm Wellmaker | Kris Moutinho | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 32 |
| Reach | 71″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Record | 9–0–0 (5 KO, 2 Sub) | 14–6–0 (6 KO, 3 Sub) |
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho Preview
Malcolm Wellmaker burst onto the UFC scene back in April, knocking out Cameron Saaiman in under two minutes. Before that, he dominated Adam Bramhald on Dana White’s Contender Series, also via first-round stoppage. A total of 5 of his 9 professional wins have come by knockout, and he boasts an impressive 5.82 significant strikes landed per minute with 61% accuracy, indicative of the heavy output he relies on to win fights. His zero takedown numbers reflect an approach dedicated entirely to stand-up fighting, but dismissing his defensive grappling would be a mistake, as he’s yet to be taken down in UFC competition.
Kris Moutinho, on the other hand, is a warrior. At 14–6, his UFC experience includes high-profile matches against Sean O’Malley and Guido Cannetti, though both ended in losses. Since returning to regional promotions, he’s strung together five straight wins, finishing all of them. Stats show he is often on the back foot and trading heavily, a style that could work against him when facing someone who has shown so much promise striking.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds from bet365 place Wellmaker as a heavy favorite at –1600 while Moutinho checks in at +900. This suggests sportsbooks view Wellmaker as a near-lock to win.
- Wellmaker’s striking could overwhelm Moutinho early, with Moutinho’s resilience making a potential late-fight upset the main uncertainty.
- Total rounds prop: Under 1.5 is the favored outcome at -165, while the over at that number is +125.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho Prediction
The key factor to watch in this fight is early striking engagement. Wellmaker lands high-volume, high-impact strikes with crisp defense and hasn’t shown weakness in grappling exchanges. Moutinho thrives on prolonged bouts, hoping to soak up punishment to land his own power shots, but his durability against UFC-level talent is not something that works in his favor.
Given Wellmaker’s accuracy, pace, and finishing ability, the fight likely ends early. Moutinho’s road to the upset requires surviving a storm he hasn’t faced before and turning the tables late, a tall ask against a fighter like Wellmaker.
Final Thoughts
In a matchup styled around volatility, Malcolm Wellmaker will leverage youth, striking volume, and knockout power to overwhelm a battle-tested but beatable opponent. Kris Moutinho brings heart and experience, but his path to victory depends on a comeback that historical data suggests is unlikely. Betting lines reflect this, and smart wagers will lean toward a sharp early finish from Wellmaker. Look for a crisp, decisive outcome and a quick win for “The Machine.”
