The welterweight showdown between Michael Chiesa and Court McGee on June 14, 2025, brings an intriguing matchup with a clear contrast in styles and game plans. As fight fans and bettors prepare for this fight, this Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee prediction explores every edge and angle before the fight begins.
Our Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee Pick
- Pick: Michael Chiesa via Submission (Round 2 or 3)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Michael Chiesa | Court McGee | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 40 |
| Reach | 75.5″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Record | 18‑7‑0 | 23‑13‑0 |
Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee Preview
Michael Chiesa, known as “Maverick”, is a grappling specialist with a powerful wrestling base and 12 submission wins in his 18 victories. His last outing was a dominant rear‑naked choke win over Max Griffin in December 2024, showcasing improved cardio and strategy. Chiesa’s southpaw stance and 75.5″ reach give him an advantage in maintaining distance and setting up his takedowns.
Court “Crusher” McGee brings veteran grit and durability. At age 40, his 23‑13‑0 record reflects resilience, including a notable submission win via neck crank over Tim Means in October 2024. McGee averages 4.6 significant strikes per minute compared to Chiesa’s 1.8, but absorbs more and lands less efficiently. His striking volume could be a threat, but he lacks the finishing firepower to overwhelm top grapplers.
Betting Insights
- Current moneyline odds: Chiesa sits at –350, while McGee is +275 for those making MMA predictions.
- This fight is expected to go the distance, as bettors can wager on there to be over 2.5 rounds at -190, while the under stands at +140.
Bettors should weigh Chiesa’s grappling upside against McGee’s striking output and conditioning. Chiesa’s takedown accuracy and submission averages (3.3 TD per fight, 48% accuracy) suggest he can implement his game plan. McGee’s striking rate should keep the pace fast, but his striking defense and weaker wrestling will leave him vulnerable.
Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee Prediction
Chiesa will look to control the distance, land strikes to level change, then clinch and take McGee to the ground. From there, he will aim to work for positioning and hunt for submissions. McGee must keep the fight standing, use volume, mix in takedown defense, and aim for late leg kicks or misdirection to disrupt the southpaw’s rhythm.
Expect Chiesa to achieve two to three takedowns in the early rounds. If he maintains pressure and avoids McGee’s heavy hands, he can methodically break his foe down and find a submission between rounds 2 and 3. McGee’s chances hinge on quick finishes or outlasting Chiesa to a decision, but history suggests he’s unlikely to avoid the mat entirely for 15 minutes.
Final Thoughts
Michael Chiesa brings a strong grappling pedigree, superior recent form, and stylistic matchup advantages as the odds-on favorite. Court McGee’s toughness and striking volume offer intrigue, but the path to victory for him seems narrow. Bettors seeking a reliable outcome should lean toward Chiesa by submission in the middle rounds.
