The showdown between Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato is set to take place in UFC on Saturday, June 14, 2025 in Atlanta. With Bellato entering as a significant favorite, Craig’s veteran savvy and submission threat create a fascinating clash. Here, I break down this light heavyweight matchup and give you my best Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato prediction.
Our Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Pick
- Pick: Rodolfo Bellato by knockout or decision
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
- Top Sportsbook Bonus Pick: bet365 promo code ATSBONUS for $150 in bonus bets
Tale of the Tape
| Statistic | Paul Craig | Rodolfo Bellato |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 years | 29 years |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 17‑9‑1 | 12‑2‑1 |
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Preview
In this light heavyweight contest, youth and output collide with experience. Bellato, aged 29, brings the edge in striking frequency, landing around 6.3 significant strikes per minute. Craig, 37, trades less volume at 2.5 significant strikes per minute with middling accuracy and defense.
Craig is a submission savant, boasting 13 submission victories and six UFC Performance bonuses, thanks to his signature triangle choke. Yet his takedown success sits low at 20% against a takedown defense figure from Bellato that has very strong in recent bouts. Bellato has knockout power with seven KOs on record as he continues to build momentum.
Craig’s recent form tells a tale, with three straight losses at middleweight and light heavyweight, most recently falling to Bo Nickal by decision in November. That skid may affect his confidence heading into this matchup. Bellato, recovered from a draw with Jimmy Crute in February, is on an upward trajectory.
Physically, they are evenly matched at 6′3″ and near 205 pounds. Bellato’s slight reach advantage isn’t massive, but combined with his volume, it presents trouble for Craig’s defenses. An older, slower Craig might struggle to close the distance without eating strikes.
Betting Insights
- Bellato is a strong favorite with moneyline odds at -400 at bet365.
- Craig is priced as a sizable underdog at +300.
- Prop bettors might explore over 1.5 rounds at -120 or distance options, as some analysts consider Bellato a heavy finisher but acknowledge Craig’s resilience and ability to keep himself from being finished.
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Prediction
Craig must pull off something special to avoid a clear defeat. His path lies in getting Bellato to the ground and targeting submission setups. But Bellato’s takedown defense has been tight, and his striking volume and accuracy make him a challenging takedown target.
Bellato is expected to keep the fight standing, switch stances fluidly, and land clean strikes behind an active jab. If he stays out of Craig’s range and doesn’t engage in grappling, he can build a lead or land a finish. Craig’s aging chin and reduced output make his path more precarious.
Given Bellato’s momentum, power output, defense, and Craig’s recent form slide, the smart money leans on Bellato to control and likely close the fight by TKO or decision by outpointing Craig late.
Final Thoughts
This fight features a rising striker versus a battle-hardened submission specialist past his peak. Bellato’s confidence, tools, and form give him the edge heading into Atlanta. For those making UFC betting predictions, the cleanest play is Bellato to win confidently, with moderate upside on his finishing props. Craig offers some submission intrigue in the late rounds, but the odds don’t justify expecting an upset inside the distance, though a conservative parlay targeting distance and Bellato has value. Ultimately, Bellato’s combination of youth, volume, power, and defense makes my prediction clear, that his hand will be raised Saturday night.
